narrow gauge pointer to future development

We're all going to need many many more railways in the future, but what form will they take? As the roads vanish under weeds we'll still need to move around, perhaps not as much as we do now, but goods will need to come into and out of towns, some people will still work some distance from their homes and hopefully there'll still be enough surplus income for most of us to continue to have holidays.

The rail network will no doubt expand back up to its pre-Beeching levels, but that will still leave large swathes of the country rail-less, because rail development was actually cut short in the early years of the twentieth century by the economic oddity of cheap oil. The most likely solution will be community light railways, many of which will probably be more successful (and certainly cheaper to construct and run) if of narrow gauge.

Switzerland has a superb network of (mainly) metre-gauge routes that reach the places the standard gauge lines can't. Very few Swiss lines have closed, and those that have were mainly for misguided political reasons taken before Peak Oil was a major issue. In fact in the past few years several new lines have been opened, often at huge expense. The Swiss are some considerable way further along the sustainable development curve than us!

So, if you're looking for a Peak-Oil-Proof investment why not look at railway construction companies or rolling-stock manufacturers. I particularly fancy Parry People Movers, not yet a quoted plc but likely to become one as demand for their product soars. Keep checking the business press for developments, as the best time to get your money into these areas is right at the start!

investment strategy

It's hardly contrarian to forecast that rail will become the primary transport mode over the next 50 years. Cars and planes will grind to a halt when the oil runs out, not everyone will be happy to live a totally sedentary life post-oil and hopefully there will still be work, shopping, tourism etc. People will still need to get around at some sort of speed!

So rail will come into its own, the development that stopped once cheap oil was available will start again and new railways will open worldwide. Trams and light rail will take up the slack in cities, towns and even villages. Thousands of miles of new lines will open in the UK alone. This is a superb investment opportunity for those of us sharp enough to look to the future rather than the past. Running lines may not be that profitable (though some will be!) but the actual supply of infrastructure, the construction companies, rail freight companies (successors to dinosaur raod transport firms), signalling and information technology suppliers and fitters, companies manufacturing trains and LRVS etc, all will be good investments if well run.

Many 'heritage' lines currently operating or being built will morph into proper transport links, this is already happening on some lines such as Swanage, West Somerset etc. Even some of the start-up lines that aren't even running trains have big plans to rebuild genuine transport routes. The embryonic Somerset and Dorset Railway down in Midsomer Norton plans to build back to Bath on a superb commuter/shopper/freight route as well as (as the name suggests) getting back down to Dorset and eventually the second honeypot in Bournemouth.